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Tropical wave headed toward Gulf of Mexico with low formation chances

By Heather Monahan Aug 17, 2022 | 12:43 PM

TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) — The tropics remain relatively quiet, even as we enter the time of year when we typically see an uptick in activity.

The National Hurricane Center is keeping an eye on a tropical wave but, as of Wednesday morning, it only has low formation chances.

The wave is currently over Honduras and the northwestern Caribbean Sea. According to the NHC, it’s expected to move across Central America in the coming days.

The wave is then forecast to emerge over the Bay of Campeche. Once it does, the NHC says an area of low pressure could form Friday.

“Some gradual development of this system is possible while it moves northwestward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through the weekend,” NHC forecasters say.

The system has been given a low 10 percent chance of formation through the next 48 hours and a low 30 percent chance of formation through the next 5 days.

The next storm that forms in the Atlantic basin will be given the name Danielle. Despite the quiet stretch we’ve been experiencing the past several weeks, this year’s hurricane season is still expected to be above-average.

We usually see an uptick in tropical activity around this time of year, as we get closer to the statistical peak of hurricane season on Sept. 10.

Tracking the Tropics streams at 2 p.m. ET every Wednesday during hurricane season. For the latest updates, check out our Tracking the Tropics website.