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11 A.M. UPDATE: Hurricane Ian gains strength, Tampa Bay still in cone of uncertainty

By Athina Morris Sep 26, 2022 | 6:27 AM

TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) — Ian strengthened into a hurricane on Monday morning and is forecast to rapidly intensify into a major hurricane as it nears Western Cuba Monday night, the National Hurricane Center said.

At 11 a.m. Monday, Ian was centered about 100 miles west of Grand Cayman and 240 miles southeast of the western tip of Cuba. Both areas are under hurricane warnings at this time, according to the NHC’s advisory.

The advisory said Ian had gained some strength. At 11 a.m., it had maximum sustained winds of 80 mph and was moving northwest at 13 mph, with hurricane-force winds extending outward up to 25 miles from the storm’s center.

The storm is forecast to near the Cayman Islands on Monday, then strengthen into a major hurricane when it nears Western Cuba Monday night. The center said Ian will produce significant wind and storm surge impacts in that area.

According to Storm Team 8 Meteorologist Leigh Spann, the forecast track shows Ian emerging over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico as a Category 4 hurricane on Tuesday. The hurricane center said it will likely pass west of the Florida Keys late Tuesday, and approach the west coast of Florida on Wednesday.

The forecast track didn’t shift much with the 11 a.m. forecast, but it appears the storm would move forward slower, meaning it could stick around in Tampa Bay longer than previously expected.

“The latest forecast slows the storm’s forward motion off our coast on Wednesday. That means a more prolonged wind and rain event, possibly bringing more damage and flooding,” Spann said.

Tropical conditions will likely affect the area from Wednesday morning through Thursday and will ease on Friday morning, she added.

The NHC issued a Hurricane Watch for much of the Tampa Bay area, including Hillsborough, Pinellas, Sarasota and Manatee counties. Hillsborough County issued a mandatory evacuation order for residents living in Zone A.  Manatee County also issued a mandatory evacuation for Zone A residents.

In Pinellas County, evacuations are recommended for residents in Zones A, B and C, and all residents in mobile homes.

The hurricane watch means those in the area could see hurricane conditions (maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) in the next two days. The watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, the NHC said.

Polk, Highlands, Hardee and DeSoto counties are now under a tropical storm watch. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the specified area, generally within 48 hours.

There is also a storm surge watch in effect for parts of the Tampa Bay area, including Sarasota, Venice and Englewood. The areas could see 5 to 8 feet of storm surge in over the next 48 hours.

According to the NHC, water could reach the following heights above ground in the following areas:

  • Anclote River to Englewood (5 to 8 feet)
  • Englewood to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor (4 to 7 feet)
  • Bonita Beach to East Cape Sable (3 to 5 feet)
  • East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge, including Florida Bay (2 to 4 feet)
  • Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas (2 to 4 feet)

The storm could dump 8 to 10 inches of rain on portions of Central West Florida with some areas seeing isolated amounts of 15 inches, the NHC said. The rest of the Florida Peninsula could see 3 to 8 inches of rain.

The Florida Keys and parts of South and Central Florida could see a few tornadoes Monday night and Tuesday, the NHC said.

If it takes the more western track, the Tampa Bay area could still see some storm surge, but not as significant, along with 4 to 8 inches of rainfall. A few tornadoes are also possible, Holly said.

The following watches and warning are in effect at this time.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for:

  • Grand Cayman
  • Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for:

  • Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas
  • Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge westward to Key West
  • Dry Tortugas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for:

  • Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West
  • Dry Tortugas
  • Florida Bay
  • Anclote River southward to the Card Sound Bridge
  • Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for:

  • Englewood to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for:

  • Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
  • Englewood southward to Flamingo
  • Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge
  • Lake Okeechobee

Other areas to watch

The NHC is also monitoring a broad area of low pressure in the Atlantic off Africa. The system has a 70% chance of becoming a tropical depression sometime this week.

The center issued its final advisory on Tropical Storm Gaston after it dissipated early Monday.