Hurricane Ian tracker 2 pm: Storm brings flooding, strong winds to Florida, expected to make landfall as ‘catastrophic hurricane’ soon

TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) — Hurricane Ian is bringing catastrophic storm surge, winds and floods to Florida as it moves into the peninsula Wednesday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center said.

In its 2 p.m. advisory, the NHC said Ian remained a Category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph, just two miles shy of Category 5 storm wind speeds. Only two Category 5 storms—Hurricane Andrew in 1992 and Hurricane Michael in 2018—have hit the U.S. in the last three decades.

The storm was about 25 miles west-northwest of Fort Myers and 50 miles south-southwest of Punta Gorda, Florida, moving north-northeast at 9 mph.

It is expected to make landfall as a “catastrophic hurricane” soon, the NHC said.

Tampa Bay is currently under a hurricane warning. The storm is expected to hit the area in the next couple hours and move over Central Florida Wednesday night and Thursday.

“The worst of the impacts will be to the south of Tampa Bay. Sarasota, Hardee, eastern Hillsborough and Polk will see the heaviest rainfall and we are concerned we will see damaging flooding as a result of the downpours. Storm surge becomes less of a threat with this shift in the track,” said Storm Team 8 Meteorologist Rebecca Barry.

“Expect conditions to deteriorate throughout the day on Wednesday and the worst of the winds to push through overnight Wednesday night into Thursday,” Barry added.

Aside from the hurricane-force winds, tornadoes are also possible across Central and South Florida.

The NHC says Category 4 hurricanes can cause “catastrophic damage” to well-built homes, particularly roof structures and/or some exterior walls. Trees can be snapped and uprooted and power poles will be downed. Power outages can last weeks, possibly months.

Ian was expected to emerge over the Atlantic Ocean Thursday night, turn toward the north and travel over the northeastern Florida, Georgia and South Carolina coasts Friday.

Central Florida and northeast Florida are expected to see 12 to 18 inches of rain, with some areas seeing isolated maximum amounts of 24 inches. The storm could dump another 6 to 8 inches of rain on South Florida and the Florida Keys with some areas seeing about 12 inches.

Central Florida is vulnerable for “widespread, life-threatening catastrophic flash, urban, and river flooding,” the NHC added.

Tampa Bay and other parts of Florida are also under a storm surge warning, meaning the storm could raise water levels above normal tides.

According to the NHC, water could reach the following heights above ground in the following areas:

Englewood to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor (12 to 18 feet)
Middle of Longboat Key to Englewood (6 to 10 feet)
Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee (8 to 12 feet)
Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable (5 to 8 feet)
Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, including Tampa Bay (4 to 6 feet)
Suwannee River to Anclote River (3 to 5 feet)
Lower Keys from Key West to Big Pine Key, including the Dry Tortugas (3 to 5 feet)
Flagler/Volusia County Line to South Santee River including St. Johns River (3 to 5 feet)
St. Johns River south of Julington (2 to 4 feet)
East Cape Sable to Card Sound Bridge (2 to 4 feet)
Florida Keys east of Big Pine Key (2 to 4 feet)
Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line (1 to 3 feet)
North of South Santee River to Surf City, North Carolina (1 to 3 feet)

The NHC said the deepest water will be near and to the right of the hurricane’s center, where large waves will accompany the storm surge. The flooding is dependent on the timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, creating varying levels of floodwaters over short distances.

Here is a list of watches and warnings that are in effect as of 11 a.m. ET. Wednesday.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for: