×

Why haven’t we seen a massive Powerball, Mega Millions jackpot recently?

By Addy Bink Aug 29, 2025 | 10:35 AM

(NEXSTAR) — It’s been no less than 150 days since the last Mega Millions jackpot was won, and nearly 100 since the Powerball jackpot was hit. 

While out of the ordinary — in both games, a jackpot is won roughly every 35 to 38 days, on average — what may be even more odd to lottery players is the lack of massive jackpots over the last year. 

For both Powerball and Mega Millions, seven of the 10 largest jackpots in game history have been won since 2021 (though another record-sized Powerball jackpot is brewing). Across both games, there have been 12 jackpots worth at least $1 billion. With the exception of two, all have been won over the last five years.

Between July 2023 and last December, six of those billion-dollar jackpots were won. That’s an average of one massive jackpot victory every three months — and that doesn’t account for the smaller jackpots won in between.

To be even more specific, there were 13 drawings across the last fiscal year in which the advertised value of the Powerball or Mega Millions jackpot was at least $1 billion. Out of those, the jackpot was won five times, according to data shared with Nexstar by Daniel Kelly, an information officer and strategic communications supervisor with the California Lottery. 

With the exception of the current Powerball jackpot, we haven’t seen an advertised jackpot near the $1 billion mark in more than eight months. So where have the massive prizes gone?

Generally speaking, nowhere. 

The apparent drought of record-setting Powerball and Mega Millions jackpots largely comes back to game structure. Both games are designed to last for several drawings before the jackpot is won.

You have a 1 in 292.2 million chance at the Powerball jackpot, and a recently-improved 1 in 290.5 million chance at the Mega Millions jackpot. This prevents frequent winners, thereby feeding the jackpot.

What was also fueling the run of record-breaking Powerball and Mega Millions jackpots over the last few years was inflation and interest rates. These figures, combined with ticket sales, help game officials estimate the jackpot value.

Interest rates, in particular, are important because of how funds are established to pay certain winners. When a winner opts for the annuitized payout, or three decades of gradually increasing payments, their winnings are invested into U.S. Treasury bonds, Carolyn Becker, deputy director of public affairs and communications for the California Lottery, previously explained to Nexstar. Those bonds, which are “conservative” and “low risk,” are impacted by interest rates. 

The higher the interest rate, the stronger the purchasing power, Becker explained at the time. 

Interest rates and ticket sales have hardly changed since the height of the massive lottery jackpots, Becker told Nexstar on Thursday. Instead, experts within the California Lottery described this period of fewer record-setting jackpots as the norm, not the exception. 

Data from Kelly shows that over the last seven years, on average, Powerball and Mega Millions have produced between three and four drawings in a fiscal year in which the advertised jackpot exceeds $1 billion. The last fiscal year, with 13 $1 billion-plus drawings and five record-breaking jackpots, was an obvious outlier. 

So far, we’ve had two drawings over $1 billion this fiscal year, with one producing a winner in December, putting us roughly on track. 

It, again, largely comes back to game structure. 

“Because [Mega Millions and Powerball] are games of chance, that also can be applied to how often we get a jackpot hit,” Becker said. “When a jackpot evades players for weeks and weeks and weeks, like is the case right now with Powerball, it’s just by chance that it gets up to a billion.” 

Now, we’re on the precipice of another record-setting jackpot. As of Friday morning, the Powerball jackpot increased to an estimated $1 billion. It’s possible that the jackpot grows even more before Saturday’s drawing, but as Becker noted, it’s all about chance. 

Your chances of winning the Powerball jackpot, regardless of its size, are 1 in 292.2 million. You have better odds of being attacked by an alligator in Florida or struck by lightning. Nonetheless, if you’re ready to test your odds, the next drawing is scheduled for 10:59 p.m. ET on Saturday. Powerball tickets are $2 each and are sold in 45 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.