TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) — The tropics have been relatively quiet since Hurricane Ian hit southwest Florida last month. But with just about a month left to go in hurricane season, we are seeing some activity once again.
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring two areas in the Atlantic basin for potential tropical development.
The first disturbance is an area of low pressure producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms from the central Caribbean Sea to the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. According to a Wednesday morning outlook from the NHC, environmental conditions are relatively favorable for some gradual subtropical development in the coming days.
The system is forecast to move north, over the western Atlantic to the west of Bermuda. By the end of the weekend, the NHC says the system is expected to run into upper-level winds that are not as favorable for development.
“This one is not going to affect us here in the Tampa Bay area,” WFLA Meteorologist Amanda Holly said. “It might not even affect the United States, even if it develops. So we’re not concerned about that one.”
As of Wednesday morning, NHC forecasters are giving the disturbance a low 20 percent formation chance through 48 hours and low 30 percent formation chance through five days.
The second area being monitored is an area of low pressure that the NHC says could form over the Caribbean this weekend. The latest tropical weather outlook says environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for gradual development as the disturbance moves west. It’s expected to reach the central Caribbean early next week, where water temperatures remain warm.
“It could organize here over the next couple of days. We’re gonna watch this one,” Holly said. “Most models do not bring it close to the state of Florida but there have been a couple of runs here and there that do bring it a little closer.”
The second disturbance has been given a low near zero percent chance of formation through 48 hours and a low 30 percent formation chance through five days.
“We’re still very much in the middle of hurricane season,” Holly added. “And actually, as we get toward the end of October, we do see a little bit of an uptick in that tropical activity. So we’ll keep an eye on it and let you know if there’s anything to watch out for.”
Tracking the Tropics streams at 2 p.m. ET every Wednesday during hurricane season. For the latest updates, check out our Tracking the Tropics website.